Pitman A.J. and G.T. Narisma (2005). The role of land surface processes in regional climate change: a case study of future land cover change over South Western Australia. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 89(1-4), 235-249.

Abstract:

Using a high resoltion regional climate model we perform multiple January simulations of the impact of land cover change over western Australia. We focus on the potential of reforestation to alemiorate the projected warming over western Australia under two emissions scenarios (A2, B2) for 2050 and 2100. Our simulations include the structural and physiological responses of the biosphere to changes in climate and changes in carbon dioxide. We find that reforestation has the potential to reduce warming caused by the enhanced greenhouse effect by as much as 30% under the A2 and B2 scenarios by 2050 but the cooling effect declines to 10% by 2100 as CO2-induced warming intensifies. The cooling effect of reforestation over western Australia is caused primarily by the increase in leaf area index that leads to a corresponding increase in latent heat flux. This cooling effect is localized and there were no simulated change in temperature over regions remote from land cover change. We also show that the more extreme emission scenario (A2) appears to lead toa more intense response in photosynthesis by 2100. Overall, our results are not encouraging in terms of the potential to offset future warming by large scale reforestation. However, at regional scales the impact of land cover change is reasonably large relative to the impact of increasing carbon dioxide (up to 2050) suggesting that future projections of the Australian climate would benefit from the inclusion of projections of future land cover change. We suggest that this would add realism and regional detail to future projections and perhaps aid detection and attribution studies.


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Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment
Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies
University of Wisconsin-Madison

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